Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 24.409445 29.016852 34.778492 42.719227 53.738533 69.105985 93.446477
2024-12-15 19.383131 24.657289 32.033030 43.734348 63.287636 98.246719 178.111647
2024-12-22 15.946557 21.051285 28.656097 41.796910 66.650840 120.323753 293.586931
2024-12-29 14.029579 19.075728 26.991073 41.706787 72.895683 154.709438 569.782510
2025-01-05 12.261705 16.972807 24.601038 39.461810 73.479004 176.682340 991.562354
2025-01-12 10.742002 15.030699 22.110890 36.312871 70.487000 185.243100 1532.910284
2025-01-19 9.611396 13.573961 20.226310 33.917276 68.383958 195.956349 2654.598831
2025-01-26 9.800112 14.282873 22.256120 40.242339 94.018122 400.719874 NaN
2025-02-02 9.510758 14.134713 22.665751 43.118580 112.384031 702.432684 NaN
2025-02-09 8.739332 13.055149 21.095472 40.693635 109.465054 779.524843 NaN
2025-02-16 8.457488 12.821530 21.183271 42.583787 126.347972 1466.023960 NaN
2025-02-23 8.050851 12.318570 20.642876 42.634550 135.421963 2460.547193 NaN
2025-03-02 7.640075 11.803325 20.077364 42.692123 146.499132 5376.218951 NaN
2025-03-09 7.325590 11.442145 19.800874 43.575678 164.722843 30351.533505 NaN
2025-03-16 6.860196 10.752472 18.710051 41.637755 162.661203 95106.737047 NaN
2025-03-23 6.557882 10.353850 18.227414 41.547169 174.613846 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 6.156152 9.732650 17.170835 39.314849 167.577423 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 5.731544 9.043775 15.905809 36.183171 151.127466 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 5.380162 8.482366 14.898815 33.800222 139.985534 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 5.545418 8.946807 16.314909 40.090978 217.497491 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 5.496090 8.976065 16.704112 42.950671 278.136122 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 5.212583 8.506735 15.811011 40.539717 259.491225 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 5.133591 8.455579 15.962846 42.418998 316.672009 NaN NaN